Life Insurance Surrender Index & Net Yield Calculator
Score any NFL or college punt with Jon Bois's Surrender Index. Enter the field position, 4th down distance, score and game clock to see how cowardly the punt was, and how it ranks against 66,146 NFL punts from 1999 to 2025.
Punt situation
What would change the number?
Quick answer: The Surrender Index is a football stat that scores how cowardly a punt is. It multiplies four things: where the ball is, how many yards the offense needed, the score, and how much time had passed since halftime. Half of all NFL punts since 1999 score 1.2 or lower. Anything above about 14 is in the top 5% of cowardly punts, and above 42 is in the top 1%.
What Is the Surrender Index in Football?
The Surrender Index is a number that tells you how much a football team gave up when it chose to punt. SB Nation's Jon Bois created it for his Chart Party video series, in an episode called "The Search for the Saddest Punt in the World." He wanted a simple way to rank the punts that make fans groan: the 4th and 2 from midfield while losing late, or the overtime punt from the opponent's side of the field.
The bot that tracks it calls it "a completely arbitrary metric," and that is the point. It does not use win probability or expected points. It uses four plain inputs that any fan can read off a TV broadcast. That is why it caught on. Andrew Shackelford later built the @surrender_index bot, which posts the index for every NFL punt in real time along with a percentile. A second account, @surrender_idx90, posts only the worst 10%.
A low score (under 1) means the punt was normal: deep in your own territory, long distance to go, or protecting a lead. A high score means the team was in good field position, needed only a yard or two, and was losing late in the game, and punted anyway.
How Does the Surrender Index Work?
The index starts from field position and then scales that number up or down with three multipliers. Each part answers one question a fan would ask after a punt:
- Where was the ball? Punting from your own 20 is normal. Punting from the opponent's 40 is not. The field position score grows quickly once you cross your own 40.
- How far did they need to go? Punting on 4th and 1 is more cowardly than punting on 4th and 12, so short distances keep more of the score.
- What was the score? Punting while ahead is safe. Punting while tied or behind means you are giving the ball back when you need points.
- How late was it? After halftime, every second that passes makes a punt by a tied or trailing team look worse. The clock multiplier grows as a cube, so it explodes late in the 4th quarter and in overtime.
Because the four parts are multiplied, one bad factor can push the score up fast. A punt from the opponent's 45 is already worth 6.45 before any other factor. Add a one-score deficit (×4) and two minutes left (×5.74), and even a 4th and 8 lands above 59.
How to Use a Surrender Index Calculator
This calculator updates as you type. You do not need to press a button.
- Set the line of scrimmage: Choose whether the ball is on the punting team's own side or the opponent's side, then enter the yard line. You can also click the field graphic.
- Enter yards to go: Type the distance needed for a first down on the 4th down play, such as 4th and 7.
- Enter the score: Add the punting team's score and the opponent's score before the punt.
- Enter the quarter and clock: Pick the quarter or overtime, the time left in that period, and whether it is a regular-season or playoff game.
- Read the Surrender Index: The calculator shows the index, each multiplier, the historical percentile against every NFL punt since 1999, and what would change the number.
Tip: use the score and clock from before the snap. If a penalty moved the ball back before the punt, enter the spot the punt was actually kicked from. The @surrender_index bot also reports the pre-penalty spot, since a team that takes a delay of game to set up a punt has already chosen to surrender.
Surrender Index Formula Explained
The full formula is a product of four numbers:
This calculator follows the exact rules in the open-source @surrender_index bot, so its results match the bot's posts to two decimal places. We checked it against real punts in the examples below.
| Part | Lowest value | Highest realistic value | Why it exists |
|---|---|---|---|
| Field position | 1.0 (own 40 or deeper) | 99+ at the opponent's 30 | Good field position means a first down or field goal was within reach. |
| Yards to go | 0.2 (10+ yards) | 1.0 (1 yard) | Short distances are easier to convert, so punting on them gives up more. |
| Score | 1 (leading) | 4 (trailing by one score) | Teams that need points should not hand the ball back. |
| Clock | 1 (first half or leading) | ≈14.8 (end of regular-season OT) | Each punt late in a close game leaves fewer chances to answer. |
What Factors Affect the Surrender Index?
Only four factors count: field position, yards to go, score difference, and time since halftime. Things that coaches really do think about, like weather, the kicker's range, injuries or which team is better, are left out. That makes the index easy to calculate and easy to argue about, which is part of the fun. Each factor is explained in its own section below, with the numbers the calculator uses.
Field Position and Surrender Index
Field position is the base of the whole score. Anywhere from your own 1 to your own 40 counts as 1.0, because punting there is normal. From your own 41 to midfield, the score grows 10% for each yard. Past midfield, it grows 20% for each yard. That is why punts on the opponent's side of the field produce the biggest numbers.
| Line of scrimmage | Field position score | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Own 20 / own 30 / own 40 | 1.00 | Normal punting range |
| Own 45 | 1.61 | Starting to look passive |
| Midfield (50) | 2.59 | A 15-yard gain puts you near field goal range |
| Opponent 45 | 6.45 | Punter has little room to work with |
| Opponent 40 | 16.06 | Long field goals are possible for many kickers |
| Opponent 35 | 39.96 | Classic "no man's land" punt |
| Opponent 30 | 99.44 | Almost never happens without a penalty or weather |
Moving the ball five yards on the opponent's side multiplies the score by about 2.5 (1.2⁵). That is the biggest single swing in the formula.
Down and Distance in the Surrender Index
The formula assumes the punt happens on 4th down, which is true for almost every NFL punt, so the down itself is not scored. What matters is the distance to a first down. The shorter it is, the more of the field position score is kept.
| Yards to go | Multiplier | Example |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.0 | 4th and 1 or 4th and inches |
| 2–3 | 0.8 | 4th and short |
| 4–6 | 0.6 | 4th and medium |
| 7–9 | 0.4 | 4th and long-ish |
| 10 or more | 0.2 | 4th and 10, 4th and 15, 4th and 20+ |
The distance works in steps, not a smooth curve. So a 4th and 3 and a 4th and 2 score the same, but going from 4th and 3 to 4th and 4 drops the score by 25%. Punting on 4th and 1 keeps the full score, five times more than the same punt on 4th and 10.
Score Difference and Surrender Index
The score multiplier uses the punting team's score minus the opponent's score before the snap.
| Game state | Multiplier | Clock multiplier used? |
|---|---|---|
| Leading by any amount | 1 | No, always 1 |
| Tied | 2 | Yes, after halftime |
| Trailing by 1–8 (one score) | 4 | Yes, after halftime |
| Trailing by 9 or more | 3 | Yes, after halftime |
Notice that a one-score deficit scores higher than a two-score deficit. Down 1 to 8 points, a single drive can tie or win the game, so giving the ball away is the most painful choice. Down 9 or more, the game is further out of reach and the punt is slightly more understandable. The cut-off is 8 points because that is the most one touchdown plus a two-point conversion can make up.
How Time Remaining Affects the Surrender Index
The clock multiplier counts seconds since halftime, not seconds left in the game. It is 1 for every first-half punt and for any punt by a leading team. For a tied or trailing team after halftime, it equals (seconds since halftime × 0.001)³ + 1. Because the seconds are cubed, the multiplier stays small in the 3rd quarter and then climbs sharply in the 4th.
| Clock | Seconds since halftime | Clock multiplier |
|---|---|---|
| Start of 3rd quarter (15:00) | 0 | 1.00 |
| 5:00 left in 3rd | 600 | 1.22 |
| End of 3rd quarter | 900 | 1.73 |
| 10:00 left in 4th | 1,200 | 2.73 |
| 5:00 left in 4th | 1,500 | 4.38 |
| 2:00 left in 4th | 1,680 | 5.74 |
| 0:00 in 4th | 1,800 | 6.83 |
| 5:00 left in regular-season OT | 2,100 | 10.26 |
| 0:00 in regular-season OT | 2,400 | 14.82 |
Overtime keeps counting from halftime. NFL regular-season overtime has been 10 minutes long since 2017, while playoff overtime periods are 15 minutes, so pick the right game type in the calculator. This is why overtime punts by tied teams rank among the most cowardly punts ever recorded.
What Does a High Surrender Index Mean?
A high score means the team had a real chance to keep the drive alive and chose not to. To put numbers on "high," we ran every NFL punt from the 1999–2025 seasons (66,146 punts, from nflverse play-by-play data) through the formula:
| Surrender Index | Share of NFL punts | Label in this calculator |
|---|---|---|
| Under 1.2 | About half of all punts (median is 1.2) | Normal punt |
| 1.2 – 3.06 | 50th–75th percentile | Conservative |
| 3.06 – 7.59 | 75th–90th percentile | Questionable |
| 7.59 – 13.9 | 90th–95th percentile | Cowardly |
| 13.9 – 42 | 95th–99th percentile | Very cowardly |
| 42 – 100 | 99th–99.8th percentile | Historic surrender |
| 100+ | 124 punts in 27 seasons (0.19%) | All-time surrender |
The average score (3.69) is much higher than the median (1.2) because a few extreme punts pull it up. The highest punt in the data set scored about 536. So when you compare punts, use the percentile, not the average. The labels above are our own; the percentiles come straight from the data.
Surrender Index Examples From NFL Punts
These are real punts posted by the @surrender_index bot. Our calculator gives the same result for each one. Click a button to load the punt into the tool.
Example 1: Texans overtime punt vs. Colts (2022)
Houston punted from the Indianapolis 49 on 4th and 3 with 0:20 left in overtime, tied 20–20. The game ended in a tie.
Example 2: Steelers at Eagles (December 2024)
Pittsburgh punted from the Philadelphia 46 on 4th and 7 with 10:40 left in the 4th quarter, down 13–27. The Eagles then ran out the rest of the clock.
Example 3: Patriots overtime punt vs. Seahawks (2024)
New England punted from its own 39 on 4th and 1 with 8:12 left in overtime, tied 20–20. The field position score is only 1.0, but the overtime clock carries the punt into the top 5%.
Example 4: A first-half punt on the opponent's side
Detroit punted from the Cincinnati 43 on 4th and 15 with 3:57 left in the 2nd quarter, down 0–10. Great field position, but a long distance and no clock multiplier keep it modest.
Surrender Index vs. Other Football Analytics
The Surrender Index is a fan stat. It is good at pointing out punts that feel wrong. It is not built to prove a punt was the wrong call. Here is how it compares with the tools analysts use:
| Metric | What it measures | Inputs | Best use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Surrender Index | How passive a punt looks | Field position, distance, score, time since halftime | Ranking and sharing cowardly punts |
| 4th down decision models (e.g. Ben Baldwin's 4th down bot) | Win probability of going for it vs. punting vs. a field goal | Game state, team strength, conversion rates, kicker range | Judging whether the punt was actually the wrong call |
| Win probability (WP) | Chance of winning at each moment | Score, time, field position, down, timeouts | Finding the moments that swung a game |
| Expected points added (EPA) | How many points a play added or cost | Down, distance, field position before and after the play | Rating offenses, defenses and single plays |
| Net punting average | Yards gained by the punt minus return yards | Punt distance, return, touchbacks | Rating punters, not coaching decisions |
A good way to use both: when a punt scores high on the Surrender Index, check a 4th down model for the same play. If the model also says "go for it," you have a strong case the coach played scared.
Limits of the Surrender Index
- No team strength. Punting to an elite offense is treated the same as punting to a weak one.
- No field goal option. A punt from the opponent's 35 in a snowstorm with a short-range kicker is scored like any other.
- Step changes in distance. 4th and 3 and 4th and 4 are one yard apart but differ by 25% in the score.
- No timeouts or two-minute context. The clock multiplier uses time since halftime only.
- Leading teams are almost never cowardly. Any punt with a lead gets a score multiplier of 1 and a clock multiplier of 1, even up by one point in the final minute.
These limits are part of the design. The index is meant to be simple enough to calculate from a TV broadcast.
Surrender Index FAQs
What is the Surrender Index in football?
The Surrender Index is a fan-made NFL stat created by Jon Bois of SB Nation to measure how cowardly a punt is. It multiplies four numbers: a field position score, a yards-to-go multiplier, a score multiplier and a clock multiplier. The higher the result, the more a team gave up on a drive it could have kept alive.
How do you calculate the Surrender Index?
Surrender Index = Field Position Score × Yards to Go Multiplier × Score Multiplier × Clock Multiplier. Field position starts at 1 at your own 40, grows 10% per yard to midfield and 20% per yard past it. Yards to go ranges from 1.0 (4th and 1) to 0.2 (4th and 10+). Score is 1 when leading, 2 when tied, 4 when trailing by 1-8 and 3 when trailing by 9 or more. The clock multiplier is (seconds since halftime × 0.001)³ + 1 when the punting team is tied or trailing in the second half or overtime.
What is a high Surrender Index score?
Across 66,146 NFL punts from 1999 to 2025, the median Surrender Index is 1.2. A score of about 7.6 is higher than 90% of punts, about 13.9 is the 95th percentile and about 42 is the 99th percentile. Only 124 punts in that period scored 100 or more.
Why does trailing by one score count more than trailing by two scores?
When you trail by 1 to 8 points, one drive can tie or win the game, so handing the ball back hurts the most. The formula gives that situation a 4x multiplier. Trailing by 9 or more gets 3x, because the game is already further out of reach.
Does the clock multiplier apply in the first half?
No. The clock multiplier is 1 for every first-half punt. It only grows after halftime, and in the bot version of the formula it only applies when the punting team is tied or trailing. A team that is leading always gets a clock multiplier of 1.
How is overtime handled in the Surrender Index?
Overtime seconds keep counting from halftime. Regular-season NFL overtime lasts 10 minutes, so a tied punt with 0:00 left in regular-season overtime has a clock multiplier of about 14.8. Postseason overtime periods are 15 minutes long.
Is the Surrender Index the same as a 4th down decision model?
No. The Surrender Index is intentionally arbitrary and was built for fun. Fourth down models such as Ben Baldwin's 4th down bot use win probability to say whether going for it was the better call. A punt can have a high Surrender Index and still be a reasonable decision in some cases.
Can I use the Surrender Index for college football?
You can run the same formula on any college or high school punt, and fans have scored college coaches this way. The percentiles in this calculator come from NFL punts only, so treat them as a rough guide for other levels.
Resources and Sources
The formula, examples and percentiles on this page come from these sources:
- The Search for the Saddest Punt in the WorldJon Bois, Chart Party (SB Nation) — the video that introduced the Surrender Index.
- Surrender Index bot source codeAndrew Shackelford's open-source bot and 1999–2025 historical index data.
- @surrender_index on XLive Surrender Index for every NFL punt, with season and all-time percentiles.
- @surrender_index on MastodonTom Casavant's Mastodon version of the bot.
- nflfastR (nflverse)NFL play-by-play data back to 1999, used for the historical percentiles.
- Steelers Depot on the 2024 PIT puntCoverage of the 16.53 punt used in Example 2.
- Cincy Jungle on a Bengals late puntHow fans use the Surrender Index to question coaching decisions.
- NFL Football Operations: The RulesOfficial NFL rules, including overtime length.
About this calculator: Formula checked against the open-source @surrender_index bot and verified on the real punts above. Percentiles computed from 66,146 NFL punts, 1999–2025 seasons. Last reviewed September 2026. The Surrender Index was created by Jon Bois. This tool is an independent fan calculator and is not affiliated with the NFL, SB Nation or the bot's author.